Originations Report: Consumer Unsecured, January 2026

January Origination Momentum Slows; Underwriting Tightens Into 2026

dv01’s latest Consumer Unsecured Origination Report shows January breaking from typical seasonal strength, with volumes declining month-over-month while underwriting standards tightened meaningfully. Regional divergence continues to widen, and pricing behavior remains sharply stratified across credit tiers.

What the Data Shows: Volume Softness Meets Credit Tightening

• January volumes fell 6.5% MoM—weakest January since 2016: While YoY growth remains strong at +32%, tougher comps and the sector’s inability to consistently sustain $5B+ monthly issuance suggest growth will likely moderate in the second half of 2026.

• Credit mix tightened to record levels: Top Grades surpassed 55% of originations—the highest share outside COVID-era distortions—while Middle Grades fell to their lowest level since 2022.

• Improving FICO, rising borrower leverage: Average FICO rose to 727, driven by strength in 760+ borrowers. At the same time, DTI reached another record high—more than 150 bps above 2024–2025 averages—signaling increasing payment pressure beneath the surface.

What We’re Watching: Structural Signals Beneath the Headlines

• Was January a pull-forward effect or a shift in momentum? December’s strength may have absorbed demand that typically appears in January. The next two prints will clarify whether this is normalization or a broader slowdown.

• Regional share divergence continues: Midwest + PA and New England/NY have collectively lost roughly 5% origination share over the past 18 months, while CA + West and Oil States have remained more resilient. Geographic concentration trends bear monitoring.

• Pricing dispersion remains structural, not cyclical: Top and Middle Grade GWACs continue trending lower, now ~150 bps below their 2023 peaks, while Bottom Grade pricing remains elevated. Competitive dynamics are favoring premium borrowers while marginally expanding access at materially higher costs.