Nov Update: Non-QM Deal-Age Stress Builds as Broader Homeownership Shifts

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Quick Insights

Housing & Census Data: Modest Stability, Uneven Beneath the Surface

• Homeownership increased modestly in Q3 2025, rising 0.3% QoQ to 65.3%, driven largely by seasonal effects and a sharp increase in the Northeast.

• Lower-income homeownership remains under pressure, still sitting at multi-year lows despite a small quarterly uptick, with durability unlikely to be clear until mid-2026 data.

• Households under 35 posted the strongest quarterly gain, an unusual outcome given this cohort’s typical sensitivity to seasonality, though levels remain well below early-2023 peaks amid slower household formation.

Non-QM Credit: Vintage Dispersion Widens Further

• Non-QM impairments surged 80 bps MoM in November, the largest non-COVID increase on record, driven by the Sunday month-end effect and increasingly sticky delinquency behavior.

• Deal-age analysis shows the 2023 vintage remains the primary source of stress, with 60+ delinquency rates now running nearly 3x higher than the 2022 vintage at comparable seasoning.

• Later vintages are diverging meaningfully.

  While 2024-H1 is only modestly improved versus 2023, 2024-H2 is exhibiting materially slower impairment growth, with 60+ delinquencies already tracking below 2023 and 2024-H1 by month 10.