New Macro Report: Credit Growth Remains Slow Across Consumer Lending

This edition of dv01's U.S. Household Macro Monitor analyzes CFPB data and finds that credit card and auto originations sit at levels similar to before the Global Financial Crisis, despite two decades of inflation and a larger borrower base due to population and household growth.

Quick Insights

• Student borrowing has seen little growth since 2010: Origination balances have been broadly flat, as the post-COVID rebound largely offset the decline in 2020–2022. Loan counts remain nearly 30% below pre-pandemic levels
• Auto growth is concentrating in the South: FL/GA/SC and TX/OK/LA have posted double-digit auto growth for nearly every month since Q3-2024, while the Northeast/NY Tri-State region has seen negative auto growth for the past twelve months.
• Credit growth is concentrating among stronger borrowers: Prime and super-prime borrowers account for more than 93% of credit card volumes and over 80% of auto lending, while student debt has also shifted toward higher credit quality over time.
• Student lending has tightened less than mortgages since the GFC: With the federal government directly underwriting most student loans, access to credit has remained broader across the credit spectrum.