New Report: DTIs Stayed in Check Nationally, Except in FL/GA/SC

dv01's latest U.S. Household Macro Monitor report analyzes the CFPB's Home Mortgage Disclosure Act originations data and the Federal Reserve's Distribution of Financial Accounts.

This edition maps where underwriting is holding, where regional credit stress is concentrating, and how households continue to avoid excess borrowing.

Quick Insights

Underwriting Remained Disciplined Nationally, but One Region Stands Out

• National DTIs are only 150 to 200 bps above 2018 levels, despite home prices rising more than 70% and mortgage rates increasing by roughly 200 bps over the same period.
• FL/GA/SC is the only region where more than 40% of originations have a DTI above 43—the threshold that triggers additional underwriting scrutiny.
• That gap is primarily a result of elevated homeowners insurance costs in Florida, not purchase mix, which has risen less in FL/GA/SC than elsewhere.

Purchase Activity Converged as the Buyer Mix Shifted

• Purchase originations narrowed to their smallest regional spread on record in 2023, reducing the historical lead held by TX/OK/LA and FL/GA/SC.
• The lowest-income counties—once the most purchase-heavy—now hold the smallest share as higher rates weigh on marginal buyers.
• The share of originations to borrowers under 45 has increased across every region since 2018, suggesting that older households are increasingly purchasing with cash.

DFA Shows Households Continue to Avoid Excess Debt

• Consumer credit growth was positive for a second consecutive quarter, but it remains more than 500 bps below its pre-COVID pace for the bottom 80% of households.
• Growth in household borrowing has lagged since 2022, as households have continued to avoid excess borrowing despite elevated inflation, geopolitical conflict, and persistent economic uncertainty.