Housing Affordability, Insurance Woes, and the First-Time Buyer Surge

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into dv01’s latest insights on the housing market, with a focus on affordability metrics and what they signal for both borrowers and investors. Vadim breaks down:

• How dv01’s unique affordability metric—covering over 2,900 U.S. counties—captures real-time changes in mortgage costs, taxes, and insurance.

• Why Florida’s affordability improved despite an ongoing insurance crisis, and what that reveals about regional volatility.

• The powerful link between affordability ratios and prepayment behavior, including how unaffordable regions see faster prepayments even after controlling for rate incentives.

• A surprising trend in mortgage growth: first-time homebuyers are driving a rise in mortgage counts despite high rates, tightening inventory, and affordability headwinds.

• Why tracking the number of mortgages outstanding may be the most underappreciated signal in today’s housing market.

Whether you're an investor looking to understand prepayment risk or just trying to get a handle on what’s really happening in U.S. housing, this episode offers an essential, data-rich perspective.

Listen From Your Preferred Platform

Spotify | Apple Podcasts

About the dv01 Podcast

dv01's In The Tranches of Structured Finance podcast explores macroeconomic trends, sector performance, and the future of capital markets. As a leading market intelligence company in structured credit, dv01 provides transparency and actionable insights through loan-level data and research.